通过野外实地调查云南省保山市怒江东岸麻榔河泥石流的发育特征,并对其洪积物进行光释光(OSL)测年,认为是一个年轻的泥石流沟,危险性较大.在此基础上,依据泥石流发生的影响因素具有复杂性和模糊性的特点,采用模糊数学法对其危险性进行综合评判.选取7个因子作为泥石流危险度评价的主要关联因子,评价结果与野外调查的实际情况相符,属于中度危险(Ⅲ).同时指出了评价过程中的2个关键点:建立权重集和确定隶属度.建立权重集的方法采用“理想点”的距离之和极小化为目标采优化确定,隶属度利用半梯形分布模型原理设计隶属函数来实现.经过反复的实验计算,证实此方法可操作性强,结果更符合实际.%Through investigation of the characteristics of the Malanghe dehris flow on the east bank of the Nujiang River in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province, and determination of the age of the diluvium by OSL, this paper holds that die debris flow gully is young and dangerous. According to the complexity and randomness of specific factors which control and affect the dangerous degree of the debris flows, die fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was adopted to evaluate die fatalness of the debris flow. In this paper, seven factors were chosen as the main relevant factors. The evaluation result is the same as that of the field investigation, and the fatalness is in the degree of moderate risk (HI). Two key points in the evaluation process are pointed out in this paper, I.e., the establishment of the weight sets and the determination of the degree of membership. The first point is achieved and optimized by minimizing the distance summation between "ideal points"; and the second is implemented through the membership function designed on the basis of the half trapezoid distribution model. Repeated experiments have confirmed that this method is workable and more practical than other methods.
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