利用分位数回归、模糊综合评价法,根据来自7所相关院校学生的样本数据,对本土留学个人教育风险进行计量分析.基于分位数回归模型可知:不同分位点下,是否接受本土留学教育对个人收入水平的影响不同,影响个人收入水平的因素不同,各个变量对个人收入水平的影响程度不同;相对于普通高等教育,本土留学教育对个人收入水平的影响在-1.2％～32％之间波动,本土留学教育存在明显的经济风险.基于多层次模糊综合评价模型可知:由第一层结果向量B得出,本土留学个人教育投资非经济风险综合评定处于"适中"水平;由第二层的评价结果向量B1、B2、B3得出,相对学习生活风险、教育质量风险,本土留学教育在就业/升学层面的风险等级略高.%Based on the data sampling from 7 universities and colleges,this paper employs quintile regression and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the impact of localized overseas education on individual risk.Results from quintile regression analysis are summarized as follows: localized overseas education exerts different effects on different student groups; in contrast to regular higher education,the effect on individual economic return of localized overseas education ranges from-1.2％to 32％,which shows that the economic risk of localized overseas education is highly volatile.Results from fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model suggest as follows: the non-economic risk for individuals receiving localized overseas education is at a moderate level; compared with learning environment and educational quality,the risk concerning seeking employment and further education is at a slightly higher level.
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