我国粮食生产态势分析及政策选择

摘要

China＇s grain production has experienced 4 successive stages of rapid growth,hovering growth,negative growth and recovery growth since reform and opening.Since 2004,China has reaped bumper harvests for 7 years while some new changes and features can be shown.The paper exposed the dominant factors and actual effects of yield growth for consecutive years by the application of phrase analysis,gray correlation analysis and cost-benefit analysis.Finally,some policy recommendations were proposed for construction of China＇s food security system.%改革开放以来我国粮食生产先后经历了快速增长、徘徊增长、负增长和恢复性增长4个阶段,2004年以来粮食生产连年增产的同时也呈现出一些新的变化和特征。本文通过粮食生产发展阶段分析、不同时期粮食产量影响因素的灰色关联分析、粮食生产的成本收益分析揭示近年来粮食连续增产的主导因素、增收效果,从而得出构建我国粮食安全保障体系的相关政策建议。