河南省经济增长与能源协整关系模型分析

摘要

在环境经济系统中,能源是经济活动的驱动要素,是经济活动的自然基础。本研究以河南区域的资源经济关系为研究对象,选取改革开放以来,河南省1978年-2010年样本区间内国内生产总值和能源生产总量和消耗总量数据,运用协整检验、Granger因果关系检验和误差修正等计量经济统计模型,研究河南省的国内生产总值和能耗生产总量与能源消耗总量在时序维度的长期均衡和短期动态性关系,揭示河南省经济增长与能源生产和能源消费存在的关系,探寻能源与经济的作用关系。通过实证分析表明,在河南省经济增长过程中,能源生产与能源消费和国内生产总值存在着长期的动态均衡关系,Granger因果检验表明能源生产总量、能源消费总量是国内生产总值的Granger原因,能源消费总量是能源生产总量的Granger原因。以上研究结果表明,河南省的经济增长与能源供给的长期依赖关系依然存在。%This paper takes data of GDP,energy production and energy consumption during 1978-2010 in Henan province as a sample,and makes an empirical study on long-term interaction and short-term dynamics between GDP,energy production and consumption in the application of Cointegration Test,Granger Causality Tests and ECM in a bid to uncover the interrelationship between economic growth and energy production as well as energy consumption.The test results indicate the long-term dynamic interaction between GDP growth and energy production,energy consumption.In addition,energy production and consumption are the Granger cause of GDP,and energy consumption is the Granger cause of energy consumption.Analysis of the results shows the dependence of GDP growth on energy supply.