区域经济增长与对外贸易关系实证分析——基于河南省1978—2010年统计数据的协整分析及Granger检验

摘要

According to 1978-2010 statistical data,this paper analyzes the relationship between import and export trade and economic growth in Henan Province from the statistical perspective,we found that dependence on foreign trade is far below same level as China,although trade elasticity of GDP is flexible,but trade boosting economic development in Henan province is low.From the perspective of Johansen co integration test,error correction model and Granger causality test.Henan foreign trade and economic growth have long-term equilibrium relationship,and import and export Granger causes economic growth,foreign trade in Henan Province has a positive role in promoting economic growth.%对1978—2010年河南省统计数据进行计量分析发现：长期来看（根据协整方程）,河南省进出口贸易与经济增长之间具有稳定的均衡关系,进出口贸易的GDP弹性系数分别是0·328和0·421,进出口对河南省经济增长促进作用显著。短期来看（根据EMC模型）,进出口贸易的GDP弹性分别是0·421和0·328,经济增长受进出口的影响显著,且对短期偏离长期均衡的调整系数为0·484。同时,由Granger因果性检验知,河南省对外贸易是经济增长的Granger原因,经济增长不是对外贸易的Granger原因。