基于投入产出方法的中国能源消费碳排放情景分析

摘要

China is the world＇s largest developing country and one of the world＇s largest emitters of carbon dioxide.The energy conservation is not only conducive to China＇s sustainable development,but also helpful to mitigate the global warming.Combining scenario analysis with input-output,this paper builds energy consumption and CO2 emission scenario analysis model to simulate energy consumption and CO2 emission of China in 2020 under different economic growth scenarios.The factors affecting energy reduction were analyzed,including final demand structure and energy structure.Finally,some related conclusions were attained and some corresponding policy suggestions were proposed.%中国目前是世界上最大的发展中国家,同时也是世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国家之一,因此节能减排不仅有利于中国的可持续发展,而且对缓和全球气候变暖具有突出贡献。本文将情景分析法与投入产出法相结合,建立了基于投入产出的能源消耗和CO2排放情景分析模型,模拟在不同的经济增长方式情景下中国2020年能源消耗及其CO2排放情况。然后,对中国节能减排影响因素进行分析。最后得到了有关结论,并提出了相应政策建议。