Future projection of household energy consumption in China to 2030 Part -2 Scenario analysis to 2030 of domestic energy consumption in China

摘要

This paper consists of Part One and Two. In this Part Two, future household energy consumption in China by fuel and energy type, by province, and by urban and rural areas, is projected to 2030 by scenario analysis. Several determining factors are used including the population of the urban and rural areas, household size, dispensable income, technology (innovation) for energy use, life style, energy policy, and climate change policy. By our estimation, future energy consumption in households in China in the urban/rural areas are varying from a maximum 21.56/10.68 EJ to a minimum 5.56/3.60 EJ in 2030. Per capita energy use in urban/rural areas it is a maximum 58.09/22.96 to a minimum 5.46/7.73 GJ. Per household, it is a maximum 58.09/75.29 to a minimum 14.97/25.35 GJ. Emissions of greenhouse effect gases and air pollutants are also projected.