Household energy consumption in China: 1987-2007.

摘要

This dissertation examines the trends of household energy consumption in China during two recent decades and explores socio-economic factors, such as household wealth, urbanization, and lifestyle changes, that influenced the changes. At the national and multi-regional level, structural decomposition analysis of input-output tables is used to calculate and analyze indirect energy use for urban and rural households. This approach enables examination of the influence of key macroeconomic factors of the changes in household indirect energy consumption in a shift share fashion. At the household level, this dissertation contrasts the lifestyles of urban households, rural households, and rural-to-urban migrants based on survey data from the Chinese Household Income Projects. The consumer lifestyle approach is used to link household indirect energy use to household expenditures and multivariate analysis is used to explore key factors affecting indirect energy use at the household level. Structural decomposition analysis indicates that household consumption mainly drove the rise of indirect energy use while energy efficiency improvements in production technology offset most of the increment. Population growth and urbanization played an important role in driving up indirect energy use between 1987 and 2007. Rapid urbanization and population migration from hinterland to coastal regions contributed heavily to regional differences in the rise of household indirect energy use across China. At the household level, household indirect energy use is affected in a statistically significant manner by climate, income, household size, and housing floor area. Several policy recommendations follow from this. First, China should further encourage renewable energy and promote clean-coal technologies in electric power generation. This is particularly important as household move from coal and other fuels toward electricity usage. For space heating, China should gradually switch from coal to natural gas and liberalize its central heating market. Second, China should adopt stringent energy efficiency standards for home appliances and promote highly efficient products by labeling, offering subsidies, tax credits, or low interest loans to households to encourage their use. Last, China seriously needs to consider securing a supply of energy that is sufficient to meet it rapidly rising household demand for energy.