中小城市空气质量预报试验与问题研究

摘要

Ambient air quality forcast is urgently needed due to the increasingly serious problems of atmospheric environment in China. To have a better knowledge on the basic conditions and requirements of air quality forecast in small and medium-sized cities in China, and also to promote the construction of national air quality forecast system, an experimental work regarding air quality forecast was carried out based on an statistical model forecast system in 8 typical small and medium-sized cities organized by China National Environmental Monitoring Center. Based on this work, this paper gives some insight into method selection, basic conditions as well as technical levels of air quality forecast for national system construction, and also offers some suggestions on how to promote capacity building of air quality forecast in small and medium-sized cities in China.%当前中国大气污染形势严峻，迫切需要开展环境空气质量预报预警业务工作。为调研国内中小城市开展空气质量预报的基础条件和业务需求，促进全国城市空气质量业务体系建设，中国环境监测总站组织8个典型中小城市，利用基于数值预报基础的统计模式预报系统开展了空气质量预报实验工作。在此基础上，针对开展全国预报业务体系建设所需的中小城市预报方法、基础条件、人员技术水平等方面进行专项调研，并对国内中小城市开展空气质量预报能力建设和业务工作面临的问题、困难提出了建议和参考对策。