我国房地产业发展与宏观经济互动关系实证研究

摘要

In recent years, the rapid development of real estate industry and the rapid rise of house prices have brought about broad social concern, and the central government frequently published related macro policies related to the real estate. Directing at how to keep coordinated development between real estate and macro economy, and on the basis of analysis on interactive mechanism of real estate and macro economy, this paper chose the related index between first quarter of 1998 and the fourth quarter of 2008, used vector auto -regressive （VAR） model, and through the data stationary test, Johansen co -integration test and Granger causality test, empirically analyzed the interactive relationship between the specific indexes of the investment in real estate development and macro economy, and gave the policy proposals.%近年来房地产业的飞速发展及房价的快速上涨，引起社会各界的广泛关注，中央政府对房地产领域的相关宏观调控政策频繁出台。本文针对如何保持房地产与宏观经济协调发展，在分析房地产业与宏观经济互动机理的基础上，选用1998年第1季度至2008年第4季度之间的相关季度指标，使用向量自回归（VAR）模型，通过数据平稳性检验、Jo-hansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验，实证分析了房地产开发投资与宏观经济具体指标之间的互动关系，并给出政策性建议。