An Empirical Investigation of Restaurant Consumption as an Indicator of Aggregate Macroeconomic Activity in the U.S.

摘要

This study investigated the relationship between restaurant consumption and aggregate macroeconomic activity in the United States. Using a new, proprietary set of 2005 chained U.S. dollar quarterly same store sales data for restaurant consumption from Q1 2007 through Q1 2012, it empirically examined whether restaurant consumption was an aggregate macroeconomic indicator. Restaurant consumption in the U.S. was measured by consumer and qualified spend. Aggregate macroeconomic activity was measured by gross domestic product. The specific methodologies employed in this study include time series and cross-correlation analysis.;Consumer spend was found to be a procyclical coincident indicator of aggregate macroeconomic activity in the U.S. Coincident indicators are comprehensive measures of economic performance that help confirm whether a nation is prosperous or depressed. The study found no relationship between qualified spend and aggregate macroeconomic activity in the U.S. This study contributes to our understanding and ability to measure and forecast business cycles by developing a robust economic theory that relates consumption in the restaurant industry to the cycle, and determining whether restaurant consumption is a reliable U.S. economic indicator.