川西南地区冬季温度和降水变化趋势预测

摘要

本文利用川西南地区1958年～2008年14个气象站的冬季逐日平均温度、最低温度以及降水量资料，应用线性倾向估计方法研究了川西南地区冬季平均温度、最低温度以及降水量的变化特征，并应用R/S分析和基于均生函数的主成分方案建模方法预测了各气象要素的未来变化特征，预测了未来10年内川西南地区冬季覆冰趋势。%Based on the daily average temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation data for 14 stations in the southwest area of Sichuan from December to February during 1958~2008,the variation characteristics of average temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation are studied by the method of linear trend estimation. Meanwhile, we forecast these meteorological elements's variation characteristics in the future by R/S analysis and principal component scheme modeling based on mean generating function and forecast the change trend of the icing of the Southwest Area of Sichuan in the winter in the next 10 years.