台湾地区能源消费与经济增长关系实证研究

摘要

在三要素的生产函数框架下,应用协整分析探讨台湾地区能源消费与经济增长之间的关系.实证结果表明,资本存量、劳动力资本、能源消费量、全要素生产率与经济增长之间存在以经济增长为响应变量的长期协整关系;在多变量框架内的因果关系分析呈现从能源消费到经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系,反映台湾经济增长有赖于能源的推动;通过进一步引入脱钩指数发现,台湾经济与能源尚未"脱钩",经济增长仍存在来自能源的压力.因此,构建安全稳定的能源供应体系,制定务实可行的能源政策是该地区经济增长的保障.%Under the framework of the three-factor production function,this paper uses the cointegration analysis to explore the relationship between Taiwan's economic growth and energy consumption.The empirical results show that there is a long - term cointegration relationship between the capital stock,the labor capital,the energy consumption,the total factor productivity and the economic growth.The causal rela-tionship analysis within the multivariate framework shows the one-way Granger causality from energy consumption to economic growth,re-flecting that Taiwan's economic growth depends on the energy.By further introducing the decoupling index,Taiwan's economy and energy have not yet been "decoupled",and economic growth is still confronted with the presure from energy.Therefore,to build a safe and stable energy supply system and?draw up pragmatic energy policy are the guarantee of the economic growth.