山东省能源消费、产业结构和经济发展关系实证研究

摘要

Based on the statistical data from 1980 to 2012, this paper applies co-integration analysis and Granger causality test to analyze energy consumption, industrial structure and economic development time series in Shandong Province, and makes impulse response and variance decomposition to examine dynamic changes among the sequences. The results show that there exists a long-term equilibrium of co-integration relation among energy consumption, industrial structure and eco-nomic development in Shandong Province. There is an unidirectional causality for economic growth to industrial structure, the industrial structure also has a one-way causal relationship on energy consumption. The industrial structure has a greater impact on energy consumption in both short term and long term than economic development.%文章基于1980-2012年统计数据，研究结果显示，山东省能源消费、产业结构和经济发展间存在着长期均衡的协整关系，经济增长对产业结构存在着单向因果关系，产业结构对能源消费也有单向因果关系。产业结构对能源消费的短期和长期影响均大于经济发展对能源消费的影响。