文章以我国海洋产业为研究对象，选取1996-2014年数据，构建向量自回归模型，对海洋三次产业与海洋生产总值的关联以及海洋经济与产业结构演进的脉冲响应等进行定量分析，揭示出我国经济新常态下海洋三次产业与海洋生产总值具有长期稳定的均衡关系，海洋经济发展与海洋产业结构演进形成了良性的互动机制；同时也验证出海洋第一、二、三产业和海洋生产总值之间的因果关系。政府在制定产业结构调整和优化政策时，应当立足发展第一产业，重点发展海洋第二产业，并有效地扶持海洋第三产业，以达到协同发展。%The paper, taking Chinese marine industry as the study object and selecting the panel data from 1996 to 2014, Be⁃sides, builds a VAR model to make a quantitative analysis on the correlation between the three main marine industries and gross marine product and impulse response of marine economy and industrial structure development. In the paper, the long-term stable relationship between the three main marine industries and gross marine product is revealed, healthy interaction mechanism between marine economy and marine industries development is taking shape, and the causal relations between the three main marine industries and economic growth are verified in the“new normal”of Chinese economy. The government should develop the primary marine industry base ourselves on China’s realities, give priority to the secondary marine industry and effective support to the tertiary marine industry when adjusting the industrial structure and optimizing policies.
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