中国大陆地震活跃期和平静期的b值与地震趋势研究

摘要

B values of five seismically active periods and four seismically quiescent inChina's continent are calculated. The results show that the b value of the seismically active pe-riod is obviously lower than that of the seismically quiescent period. The b value of the seismi-cally active period is between 0.72 and 0.76, and that of the seismically quiescent is in therange from 0.86 to 1.06. The mean of b value of the seismically active and quiescent periods is0.75 and 0.97 respectively. Up to March 2000, the b value of the fifth seismically active peri-od is 0.87, between the mean of b value of the seismically active period and that of seismicallyquiescent period, and is obviously higher than that of the seismically active period. Therefore,the fifth seismically active period beginning in 1988 in China's continent might not end yet,there could be some stronger earthquakes with M ≥7.0 occurring in the future.%计算了中国大陆5个地震活跃期和4个地震平静期的b值。地震活跃期的b值明显比地震平静期的b值低，地震活跃期的b值为0.72～0.76，平均为0.75，地震平静期的b值为0.86～1.06，平均为0.97。截止到2000年3月，第五轮回的活跃期b值为0.87，介于地震平静期与地震活跃期的平均值之间，明显高于地震活跃期的b值。因此，中国大陆从1 988年开始的第五轮回的地震活跃期可能还没有结束，还可能发生较大的(7级)地震。