南北地震带大地形变监测与大震预测问题思考

摘要

本文以南北地震带及其附近地区大地形变监测与地震预测实践为基础，简要总结回顾了利用大地形变进行强震预测研究的工作思路、方法和一些进展；进而结合2001年昆仑山口西8．1级、2008年四川汶川8．0级特大地震前区域地壳运动变形背景和已有的研究结果，分析和探讨了基于大地形变监测，并考虑地震构造的差异性来进一步提高大震预测的科学性问题，得到了一些初步认识与启示。%The monitoring ability of the crust deformations and the big earthquake predictions for the north-south seismic belts in China are discussed. Based on the analysis of deformation observation data, guidelines, methods and progresses of the strong earthquake prediction are also summarized. The background deformation fields and previous seismic researches related to the 2001 Kunlunshan Pass M8.1 Earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake are reconsidered. The crust deformation observation and the different geological structures of northsouth seismic belts have to be combined in order to study the problems and revelations on the strong earthquake prediction.