乌鲁木齐地区热量资源时空变化分析

摘要

根据新疆乌鲁木齐地区9个气象台站1961—2009年的气候资料,采用线性回归分析和基于GIS的混合插值法,对近49 a该地区农业气候热量条件的时空变化规律进行了分析,结果表明：（1）乌鲁木齐地区热量资源具有显著的区域性差异,年平均气温、无霜冻期、≥0℃、≥10℃持续日数和活动积温在空间分布上均表现为＂平原高于山区、北部高于南部＂的格局;（2）在全球变暖背景下,近49 a乌鲁木齐地区热量资源有较明显的增多趋势,同时,各地增多倾向率差异也较大,总体来说,平原地带和城市密集区热量增幅较大,天山山区热量增幅较小。热量资源增加对乌鲁木齐地区农牧业生产既有利也有弊,因此,应采取科学的管理措施趋利避害,以促进农牧业生产的持续稳定发展。%On the basis of climatic data of 9 meteorological stations in Urumqi region during the period of 1961-2009,the spatial and temporal characteristics of heat resources on the annual average temperature,frost-free period,the sustained days of ≥ 0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃,and the active accumulated temperature of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ in a year were analyzed with the methods of linear regression and mixed spatial interpolation based on GIS.The results indicated：（1）The spatial distribution of the heat resources was obviously different with distinct regional variation.Generally,the heat resources in plain and valley were higher than that in mountain areas,northern region higher than southern.（2） In the background of global warming,the heat resources have a significant increasing trend in recent 49 years in Urumqi region.At the same time,the spatial distribution difference of the heat resources increasing is obvious,to sum up,there are more increment in urban district and plain,but less in Tianshan Mountainous area.The increasing of the heat resources is a double-edged sword on the agriculture and livestock production in Urumqi region,we should adopt scientific and effective measures so as to promote the steady development of agricultural-stock production.