层次分析法在电力客户信用风险中的评价

摘要

研究电力系统收费风险问题,由于存在着拖欠电费、窃电、违章用电的现象,影响正常交易秩序.针对信用风险进行评价,由于电力客户进行多层次和全方位评价的复杂性,评价指标体系建立和权重确定是比较困难的.结合电力客户信用风险的实际情况,建立了一套基于层次分析法的电力客户信用风险分级评价模型.首先建立评价指标体系,采用专家对指标进行打分,然后根据层次分析法确定指标权重并进行信用风险综合评价,并详细分析了模型的实施过程.以具体的实例对模型进行了仿真,结果表明,对于层次分析方法的电力客户信用风险评价模型能够评价风险等级,评价的精度更加精确,为电力信用风险评价提供了一种切实可行的思路和方法.%Aiming at systematic and comprehensive assessment of the electric power customer credit risk. The influences of electric power customer credit risk index were analyzed in this paper, a power customer credit risk evaluation index system was built, which includes the morals of electric power customer, the intend of capture expends, evaluation of place department, cooperate level and other factors. Combining with the actual situation of credit risk evaluation, a hierarchyevaluation model was established to evaluate electric power customer credit risk. Then the judgment matrix and experts attribute weights of evaluation were discussed, and finally, the power customer credit risk assessment model was used for empirical simulation. The results show that the AHP method using power customer credit risk assessment, takes full account of the experience of experts and index value, which makes the accuracy of evaluation more precise and provides a practical ideas and methods.