我国与东盟水产品双边贸易增长因素分析

摘要

Based on the characteristics of bilateral trading volume , market distribution and trade species of aquatic prod-ucts between China and ASEAN , the article adopts modified Constant Market Share model ( CMS) to disintegrate inner factors and analyze effective one within bilateral aquatic trade growth .it is concluded that competitiveness factor has played a major utility in the Chinese export aquatic to ASEAN trade growth , followed by the demand scale , and the con-tribution rate of the export structure is very low , especially the export product structure;in China′s imports from ASEAN, demand scale boosts trade growth , the structure of aquatic species adapting to the Chinese market is a secondary reason for promotion, and a relatively low contribution factor comes from competitiveness .%鉴于我国与东盟水产品的双边贸易额、增长率、市场分布及贸易种类等特点，本文运用修正后的恒定市场份额模型（CMS），对中国与东盟水产品进出口贸易的增长因素进行因素分解和效果分析，认为竞争力因素在中国向东盟出口水产品贸易额增长中发挥了主要效用，其次是需求规模效应，而出口结构的贡献率极低，尤其是产品结构亟需改进；产品需求规模在东盟出口水产品时起到了主要的拉动作用，东盟出口水产品的种类结构适应中国市场是次要推动原因，而竞争力的贡献相对较低。