《京都议定书》第二承诺期森林管理基准线分析

摘要

基于各附件Ⅰ缔约方2011年提交的年度国家温室气体排放清单、《京都议定书》第一承诺期森林管理活动的温室气体源/汇数据,以及森林管理活动的基准线数据,分析了森林管理活动在第一承诺期履约中的贡献,以及按各方提交的基准线,预计森林管理活动在未来承诺期履约中的作用.结果表明,《京都议定书》第一承诺期的最初两年(20082009年),附件I缔约方可从合格的森林管理活动中获得年均2.46亿t CO2当量(CO2-eq)的信用额,相当于相应缔约方基准年(1990年)源排放的2.3％,对减限排目标的贡献率达53％,不合理的规则使一些缔约方在履约中可过度地利用森林管理的汇清除.各附件Ⅰ缔约方提交的2013- 2020年森林管理活动的基准线(约2.52亿t CO2-eq/a的净汇清除)远低于目前和过去的水平,使其可从中获得的用于抵消减排目标的信用额约为第一承诺期的4倍,对未来承诺期履约的贡献率将更大,一些缔约方提交的减排目标中的大部分可通过森林管理活动的信用额来抵消.因此,本文建议在未来的谈判中,要严格控制可用的森林管理活动的信用额,避免森林管理活动被滥用.%Reference level of forest management most recently submitted and data from updated 1990-2009 national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory including the Kyoto Protocol forest management GHG data submitted by Annex I parties in 2011 were collected and analyzed in terms of the role of forest management in the compliance of the first and proposed second commitment periods of the Kyoto Protocol. In 2008-2009, Annex I parties can claim a credit of 246 million tons of CO2 equivalent per year from eligible forest management activities under the Kyoto Protocol, accounting for 2.3% of the total GHG emissions without LULUCF in 1990 of those Annex I parties using forest management. This implies that about 53% of emission reduction committed by these parties in the first commitment period can be offset by the net GHG removals of forest management activities. Under-capped credit from forest management allows some parties able to over-use forest management credit and do much less emission reduction in emission sectors. The reference levels submitted by Annex I parties are much less than historical removals of managed forests or much higher than historical emissions. Assuming that actual emissions/removals keep at the average historical level in the future, the reference level would allow Annex I parties to use 4 times more credit from forest management in the period 2013-2020 compared with the cap in the first commitment period, by annually mean. A large part of proposed emission reduction of some parties for the second commitment period would be achieved through offsetting from forest management.