长江口海平面上升预测及其对滨海湿地影响

摘要

A new statistical method was proposed to project the sea level rise (SLR) within the Yangtze Estuary using the monitoring data at two tide gauge stations (Wusong and Lüsi), and then four representative prediction values of SLR published in previous research were integrated, to generate a relatively complete scenario matrix for studies of SLR in this area. Setting the year 2013 as the baseline, the optimum projection range of SLR projected to the year 2030, 2050 and 2100 is 50-217 mm, 118-430 mm and 256-1215 mm, respectively. Moreover, the impacts of SLR in each projected scenario were evaluated, and for simplicity, only the change of coastal wetlands area was considered in this paper. Results showed that, with SLR becoming increasingly remarkable, the coastal wetlands in Yangtze Estuary would shrink continuously. Besides, in scenarios without consideration of climate change, which means that the SLR are projected merely on basis of historical data, the shrink of wetland area is notably slower, compared with that in scenarios which considered global warming. In general, the shrink of wetland area is larger in the long term (2100) than that in the short term (2030 and 2050).%选择吴淞站和吕四站2个验潮站数据,通过统计学方法进行长江口海平面上升预测,从而构建了一套长江口地区较完备的海平面上升情景库:以2013年为基准年份,其最佳预测值的范围在2030年、2050年、2100年分别为50~217 mm,118~430 mm,256~1215 mm.以此情景库为基础,探究海平面上升变化对长江口滨海湿地的影响,结果表明:随着海平面上升值的增加,长江口滨海湿地的面积不断减少;在基于验潮站数据作趋势外推得到的情景下,湿地面积减少较平缓,而在考虑全球变暖背景的情景下,湿地面积减少迅速;且不论在何种情景下,时间尺度越大,湿地减少的面积越大.