探讨分析气温对细菌性痢疾发病的影响及其滞后效应.通过收集嘉峪关市2008—2013年每日细菌性痢疾发病资料,结合同一时间段的气象资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温与人群细菌性痢疾发病的关联性,分析不同气温和不同滞后天数对细菌性痢疾发病可能的影响.结果表明细菌性痢疾发病与气象因素关系密切,发病高峰一般出现在每年6—8月,对气象因素与细菌性痢疾病例数据做相关分析,表明嘉峪关市细菌性痢疾每日发病人数与气温、气压和降水量均存在相关性,嘉峪关市日平均气温对不同性别、不同年龄人群暴露效应曲线为J型和U型,气温对细菌性痢疾日发病存在明显的滞后效应,在暴露当天出现,女性2~3 d达到峰值,男性3~5 d达到峰值.气温对细菌性痢疾发病的效应中,女性所受的高温效应大于男性,高温效应随着年龄的增长而增大.气象因素在嘉峪关市细菌性痢疾的发生和发展中发挥重要作用,细菌性痢疾发病受到多种气象因子共同作用的影响,但首要影响因素是高温.气温对细菌性痢疾发病不是直接作用,而是通过影响细菌性痢疾发病的各个环节(居民生活习惯、传播途径与易感人群自身体质),间接影响细菌性痢疾在人群中的分布.%To investigate and analyze the lag effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan city, the daily incidence data of bacillary dysentery in the city during 2008—2013 was collected and the meteorological data over the same period was integrated, on the basis of which the distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyze the relevance between temperature and the incidence of bacillary dysentery and to analyze the possible influence of different temperatures and different lag days on the incidence of bacillary dysentery. The results show that the incidence of bacillary dysentery was closely associated with meteorological factors, with the peak incidence happening between June and August. As indicated by the correlation analysis between the daily incidence cases of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors, the daily incidence cases of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan were correlated with air temperature, air pressure, and rainfall. J- and U-shaped relationships were found consistently between daily mean temperature and the daily incidence cases of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan, and temperature had an obvious lag effect on the daily incidence of bacillary dysentery, which occurred following exposure at the first day, the relative risk for female reached the highest at the 2-3 days, and the value for male becomes the largest at the 4-5 days. Hot effects were larger in females than those in males, and the hot effect increased with age. Meteorological factors play an important role in the occurrence and development of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan. The incidence of bacillary dysentery is affected by multiple meteorological factors, but the primary one is high temperature. The temperature has not a direct effect on the incidence of bacillary dysentery, but an indirect influence in different populations through the impacts of various aspects of the incidence of bacterial dysentery (residents living habits, communication channels and the habitus of the susceptible population).
展开▼
