Lag effect of air temperature on the incidence of respiratory diseases in Lanzhou, China

摘要

Previous studies have found that ambient temperature was associated with respiratory disease. However, little evidence is available in Lanzhou, a semi-arid region in northwest China, and respiratory disease is not well understood. This study evaluated the risk of outpatient visits for respiratory diseases associated with ambient temperatures from 2007 to 2016 in Lanzhou. We used a distributed lag non-linear model coupled with a generalized additive model to estimate the association between daily temperature and hospital visits for respiratory diseases in age- and sex-specific groups. Over 10 years, 1,042,656 hospital visits were recorded for respiratory disease, the ratio between males and females was 1.21:1. The peak period of onset occurs from November of the current year to March of the following year. Both low and high temperatures were associated with an increased risk of hospital visits for respiratory illness. The results showed that a large temperature decrease was associated with a significant risk for respiratory disease, the maximum effect of a temperature drop was reached at lag 1 similar to 2 days, the extreme low temperature (- 16 degrees C) had the maximum RR at lag 1, and the RR value was 1.082 (95 % CI 1.025-1.142). The high temperatures (23 degrees C) had maximum RR for respiratory disease on the current day, and the RR value was 1.099 (95 % CI 1.049-1.152). The high temperatures had acute and short-term effects and declined quickly over time, while the effects in low-temperature ranges were persistent over longer lag periods. Females suffered more from cold-associated morbidity than males. The effects of both hot and cold temperatures were greater among adolescents aged 6-14 years. Our study suggests that ambient temperatures are associated with hospital visits for respiratory illness in Lanzhou, particularly for those who are female and young. Caregivers and health practitioners should be made aware of the potential threat posed by cold and hot temperatures.