区域能源站负荷预测方法

摘要

为了经济合理地配置能源站设计规模和减少区域内建筑冷、热源的能源消耗与碳排放，预测区域内的负荷成为区域能源站规划的重中之重。该文描述了区域能源站各种能源需求的预测方法，以及预测所需基础数据的确定方法，结合某新区的能源需求预测进行了示例分析。对区域能源站不同类型负荷的合理预测，对系统能源分配和冷热源方案的选择具有重要意义，为能源站的规划设计提供参考数据，使规划设计更加合理，有利于提高能源站的运行效率。%In order to reasonably design district energy station and reduce cold and heat energy consumption and carbon emissions in the district, forecast-ing load in the area becomes the priority in district energy station design. This paper describes different forecast methods for various energy demands of the district energy station and the way to determine basic data needed by the prediction combined with the forecast of energy consumption in one new area. Reasonable prediction of different types of energy consumption in the regional energy station is significant for the energy distribution and selection of cool and heat sources of the system, it provides reference data for the design of the energy station and makes the planning and design more rational, which is helpful to improve the operational efficiency of the energy station.