航天器碰撞概率计算方法研究进展

摘要

针对碰撞检测与预报问题,对航天器碰撞概率计算方法的研究现状进行了总结分析.归纳了航天器线性及非线性相对运动条件下典型碰撞概率计算方法的特点及适用性；为满足某些特殊任务的碰撞预警实时性要求,讨论了瞬时碰撞概率及最大瞬时碰撞概率计算方法.通过对研究现状的分析,提出了现阶段碰撞概率计算方法中存在的问题及未来发展方向,可为未来轨迹安全问题的研究和技术发展提供参考.%To investigate the collision detection and prediction, the status and development of spacecraft collision probability computations was presented. Firstly, the characteristics and applicability of typical formulations were summarized for both linear and nonlinear encounters. Secondly, calculation methods of maximum instantaneous collision probability were discussed for certain applications with real-time collision warning requirements. Finally, some challenges and future directions were proposed based on the analysis of recent work. This work will benefit for future research and development in the field of trajectory safety.