航天器碰撞概率计算对比分析

摘要

The methods used in general calculating of collision probability between two orbiting objects were developed. The probability was calculated by given the respective state vectors and error covariance matrices and by Monte Carlo numerical verification. The parallel Monte Carlo numerical verification was given. Seven different methods were compared with process and time consuming. Effects of the uncertainty on the probability of collision were analyzed. The test case about ISS was given by seven methods and the result was compared with the fact case.%为了研究航天器碰撞概率计算的主要方法,通过航天器状态矢量、位置误差协方差计算碰撞概率,和蒙特卡罗法计算碰撞概率.给出了蒙特卡罗方法并行化的实现方法.比较了七种概率密度计算方法的优缺点和计算时间.分析了碰撞概率计算的影响因素和不同方法中对碰撞概率计算的影响因素.最后通过数值计算验证了七种计算方法的特点和正确性,并与国际空间站例子进行对比.对比结果表明,三维数值积分方法计算碰撞概率,可使计算简洁,并且所用时间短.