Objectives Through analyzing the data of outpatient quantity of a Three A and Tertiary Hospital, to grasp the dynamic change and seasonal variability of the outpatient quantity.Methods By using dynamic sequence indicator and time series seasonal indicator analysis, to analyze the change regularity of the outpatient quantity for a year, a season and a month from 2007 to 2015.Results The trend of outpatient quantity increases by years, the average developing speed was 121.4%; the seasonal indicator of outpatient quantity for the first season was the lowest (87.18%), on the contrary the third season was the highest (105.59%); for months, the lowest seasonal indicator was in February(73.18%) and the highest one occurred in July (110.00%) ; outpatient quantity has a decreasing trend from Monday to Sunday that Monday was the highest (130.68%) and Sunday was the lowest (56.03%).Conclusions The hospital outpatient quantity was increasing trend year by year and it had obvious seasonality and periodicity. Management departments should optimize configuration of medical resources according to the change regularity of outpatient quantity.Through increasing outpatient service staff and medical equipment during the crest-time of outpatient amount, arranging the staff to go out for study or vacation during the low-time, increasing the number of outpatient specialist and using other ways to improve the quality of outpatient service.%目的 通过对某三级甲等医院门诊量数据进行分析,掌握门诊量的动态变化和季节性变化规律.方法 主要采用动态数列指标和时间序列数据季节指标分析法,分析2007年-2015年门诊量年度、季度、月度、星期变化规律.结果 门诊量呈逐年增加的趋势,平均发展速度为121.40%;门诊量各季度季节指数以第1季度最低(87.18%),第3季度最高(105.59%);门诊人数各月季节指数以2月最低(73.18%),7月最高(110.00%);门诊量从周一至周日呈下降趋势,季节指数周一最高(130.68%),周日最低(56.03%).结论 医院门诊量呈逐年增加的趋势并具有明显的季节性和周期性变化特点,管理部门应根据门诊量变化规律合理进行医疗资源的优化配置,通过在高峰期增加门诊人员和医疗设备,在低谷期安排医务人员外出学习休假,增加专家号等方式提高门诊服务质量.
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