目的 对河南省2010年肾综合征出血热病例时间和空间聚集性进行分析.方法 对河南省2010年肾综合征出血热病例日分布数和县区层面分布数据按发病数进行归类整理,利用Poisson分布与负二项分布原理对其进行拟合与检验.其中负二项分布聚集性参数k采用最大似然法估算.结果 时间分布与理论分布的拟合,Poisson分布x2 =51.251 9,P＜0.05;负二项分布聚集性参数k=0.561 3,x2 =0.414 3,P＞0.05；空间分布与理论分布的拟合,Poisson分布x2=67.1213,P＜0.05；负二项分布聚集性参数k=0.845 5,x2=7.254 3,P＞0.05.结论 河南省2010年肾综合征出血热病例时间和空间分布均服从负二项分布,具有时间和空间聚集性.%The purpose was to analyse the temporal and spatial clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS)cases in Henan Province in 2010. The HFRS data in day and county levels in Henan Province in 2010 was sorted and fitted by Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution. The clustering parameter k was calculated by maximum likeli-hook method. In the fitting of temporal distribution and theoretical distribution, the x2 value of Poisson distribution was 51. 251 9 (P<0. 05). The x2 value of negative binomial distribution was 0. 414 3,k= 0. 561 3 (P>0. 05). In the fitting of spatial dis-tribution and theoretical distribution, the x2 value of Poisson distribution was 67. 121 3 (P<0. 05). The x2 value of negative bi-nomial distribution was 7. 254 3, k = 0. 845 5(P>0. 05). The temporal and spatial distribution of HFRS cases in day level and county level fitted negative binomial distribution and presented the temporal and spatial clustering in Henan Province in 2010.
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