重庆市2008－2012年手足口病空间聚集性及影响因素研究

摘要

ABSTRACT:In order to explore the spatial clustering and influential factors of HFMD in Chongqing ,China from 2008 to 2012 ,spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression analysis (using the spatial lag model in this study ) were carried out using the HFMD data of 38 districts (counties) from 2008-2012 in Chongqing by OpenGeoDa ,and the HFMD case‐based data was collected from the Disease Supervision Information Management System of Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Preven‐tion .We found that the global Moran’s I coefficient of Chongqing from 2009 to 2012 was 0 .458 7 ,0 .567 5 ,0 .398 6 ,and 0 .606 0(P<0 .01) ,respectively ,indicating that the incidence of HFMD in Chongqing had a positive spatial correlation in this four years and a spatial clustering distribution was displayed .However ,no global spatial autocorrelation was founded in 2008 and the global Moran’s I coefficient was 0 .133 2 (P>0 .05) .Results of multi‐factor spatial lag regression analysis demonstra‐ted that the incidence of HFMD was positively related with urban rate (β=1 .667 6 , P=0 .001 6) ,and negatively correlated with medical technical personnel per thousand (β= -0 .000 2 ,P=0 .019 8) .In general ,the incidence of HFMD was found ge‐ographically clustered in Chongqing from 2009 to 2012 which was significantly influenced by urban rate and medical technical personnel per thousand population ,and while the urban rate was the main factor .%目的：了解重庆市2008－2012年手足口病空间聚集性及其发病的影响因素。方法利用软件OpenGeoDa ，对重庆市2008－2012年38个区（县）手足口病发病资料进行空间自相关和空间回归分析。结果2008年重庆市手足口病发病率全局Moran’s I＝0．1332，P＞0．05，不具有全局空间自相关性；2009－2012年重庆市手足口病发病率全局Moran’s I依次为0．4587，0．5675，0．3986，0．6060，均有 P＜0．01，表明从全局上看，重庆市2009－2012年手足口病发病有正向空间自相关性，呈现出空间聚集性分布状态。空间回归分析结果提示：手足口病发病与城镇化率呈正相关（β＝1．6676，P＝0．0016）、与每千人口中的卫生技术人员呈负相关（β＝－0．0002，P＝0．0198）。结论重庆市2008年手足口病发病呈随机性分布，2009－2012年手足口病发病有空间聚集性，重庆市2008－2012年手足口病发病受城镇化率及每千人口中的卫生技术人员数的影响，又以受城镇化率影响较大。