卫星遥感资料在蒸发波导数值预报中的应用

摘要

基于美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）再分析资料和卫星遥感资料，利用天气预报模式（wRF），并耦合Babin蒸发波导模式，对发生在福建省平潭岛地区的一次蒸发波导过程进行了三维变分同化数值模拟预报对比试验。结果表明：24h之内模式预报结果与平潭岛观测结果变化规律基本一致（相关系数都在0．92以上）；卫星遥感资料同化可以使模式初始场优化，有助于改善预报结果，“同时同化海表风和海面温度”情况下，经过偏差订正后的预报效果最好（无偏均方根误差最小为0．680m）；单独同化海面风或海面温度资料都会改善预报结果。%Based on US National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） re- analysis data and satellite remote sensing data, we simulated an evaporation duct process which occurred at Pingtan island of Fujian Province by using weather re- search and forecasting （WRF） model and coupling Babin model. The compared re- sults show that the predicted results of WRF have good agreement with observed results at Pingtan island （correlation coefficient are all more than 0. 92） ; the initial fields are optimized by assimilating satellite remote sensing data which greatly im- prove the predicted result, in the situation of assimilating sea surface wind and tem-meters）. Either sea surface wind or sea surface temperature is assimilated to im- prove the predicted result.