广西某三级甲等综合医院2004-2013年门诊量季节变动规律分析

摘要

Objective To investigate the seasonal variation of outpatient visits of a tertiary general hospital in Guangxi from 2004 to 2013. Methods Using statistical data of a hospital clinic visits in various months from 2004 to 2013 to make statis-tical tables. Simple average method was used for seasonal variation analysis to calculate the seasonal index of each month ( season rate). The forecasting model of ARIMA (1,0,1) ×(0,1,1)12 was established using residual error analysis and least squares method according to the sequence stability, and testing for linear trend equation, and finally we had the interval forecasting to the 95% confidence level. Results The outpatient visits of the average monthly were 123 339 patients in 10 years, with the most 217 065 patients in July 2013, the least 54 001 patients in January 2004, The minimum and maximum range of fluctuation range ( range) was equal to 163 064 in 10 years. The outpatient amount each year in a hospital was that the highest month was 7 times in July and 2 times in August in 10 years and the lowest month was 6 times in February, and 4 times in January. The forecasting model AIC was 21. 16, the SBC was 21. 24, and the relative predictive error of predicting the outpatient visits was 6. 9%. Con-clusion The distribution of a hospital outpatient amount shows a strong seasonal variation. Using this analysis as a basis for clin-ic appointment, we can arrange outpatient service medical personnel reasonably, strengthen the out-patient power in peak, and shorten the treatment time of patients. That would be one of ways to coordinate reasonably the treatment time and the arrangement between doctors and patients.%目的：探讨广西某三级甲等综合医院2004—2013年门诊量季节变动规律。方法采用某医院2004—2013年各月门诊诊次统计数据,编制统计表。季节变动分析采用简单平均法,计算各月的季节指数(季节比率)；结合时间序列平稳性、长期趋势、季节趋势,采用季节差分变换,应用残差检验分析与最小二乘法估计,用2004年到2012年数据建立ARIMA(1,0,1)×(0,0,1)12模型,用2013年数据进行模型拟合效果检验。结果门诊诊次10年间平均每月就诊123339人,最高月份是2013年7月217065人,最低月份是2004年1月54001人,10年间120个月最高与最低变动范围极差(全距)等于163064人。10年间某医院各年门诊量最高月份中7月份出现7次、8月2次。最低月份2月出现6次、1月4次。拟合模型AIC值为21.16,SBC值为21.24,平均相对误差为6.9%。结论某医院门诊量的分布呈现强烈的季节变动规律。以此分析作依据进行预约诊疗,合理安排门诊医务人员,在高峰期加强门诊窗口力量,缩短病人就诊时间,将是合理协调医患间诊疗时间和安排的方法和途径之一。