Correlation analysis between wheat powdery mildew occurrence data of 7 stations in Hebei province and meteorological data in corresponding period from 1983 to 2010 was made.It was confirmed that the average relative humidity during late March to middle April was the key factor for the epidemic disease.There was no significant difference between slight and serious areas in Hebei province by using of the T-test for the difference of disease occurrence.It is not necessary to establish different prediction models for different regions.Discriminant classifying models for wheat powdery mildew were established by using of Fisher criterion.The model accuracy reached 82.5％based on evaluation for the historical data,and the forecasting result in the year of 2010 displayed that the accuracy was 100％.In general,the forecasting accuracy of powdery mildew was raised by establishing the models,and these models provide a solid foundation for wheat powdery mildew forecasting and early control on wheat.%将1983-2010年河北省麦区7个站点的白粉病发生程度与同期气象资料进行相关分析,初步明确了3月下旬-4月中旬平均相对湿度是影响病害流行的关键气象因子;t检验结果显示,河北省白粉病轻、重分布区的差异不显著,表明不必分区建立预测函数;通过Fisher判别准则,构建了白粉病发生程度的判别分级模型,其历史拟合率达到82.5％,2010年的试报准确率达到100％,表明模型预报效果较好.该模型的建立提高了对小麦白粉病预测的准确性,为小麦白粉病的早期防治提供了依据.
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