[目的] 通过定量分析,明确不同准则层对农业机械化可持续发展的影响,衡量农机化可持续发展在时间维度上的演变趋势.[方法] 建立了新疆农机化可持续发展评价指标体系,并构建了2001~2015年可持续发展水平评价指标关系数据模型.提出了组合赋权和专家法相结合的判断矩阵构建方法,并基于层次分析法 (Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP) 分别定量分析了2001年和2015年农机化可持续发展状态.[结果] (1) 2015年新疆农机化可持续发展水平达到了80.31,和2001年相比提高了1.2847倍.(2) 从准则层来看,新疆可持续发展水平在农机化作业能力、农机化经济效益和农机化发展能力方面分别提高了69.70、85.94和48.64,但资源消耗方面的得分下降了1.12.[结论] 2001~2005年新疆农业机械化可持续发展水平在作业能力、经济效益和发展能力等因素推动下进一步提升;揭示资源环境影响是约束农机化可持续发展的主要因素.从新疆农业机械化发展现状来看,文章方法得出的量化结果与实际情况较接近,表明研究方法有效和可行.%Agricultural Mechanization (AM) as the main symbol of modern agriculture is one of the important ways to achieve the modernization of agriculture. At the same time, the development level of AM and its sustainability play an important role in promoting the sustainable development of agriculture. Operational capacity, economic effect,development capability and impact of resources and environment are the main factors that influence the sus-tainable development of Agricultural Mechanization. This paper quantitatively analyzed the influence of different quasi layer on the sustainable development of agricultural mechanization based on AHP (Analytic hierarchy process) method,and then measured the sustainable agricultural development trend using the Xinjiang agricultural sustainable development evaluation index system and relation database model. A method of constructing judgment matrix based on combination weighting and expert method was put forward. The results showed that (1) the sus-tainable development level of Agricultural Mechanization in Xinjiang reached 80.31 in 2015,1.284 7 times higher than that in 2001. (2) In the past 14 years,the level of sustainable development of agricultural mechanization had been improved in terms of operational capacity,economic effect and development capability,but the impact of re-sources and environment declined. The sustainable development of Agricultural Mechanization in Xinjiang was af-fected by factors such as resources and environment. (3) From the present situation of Agricultural Mechanization development in Xinjiang, the quantitative results obtained by this method were close to the actual situation. It showed that the research methods were effective and feasible.
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