浦东新区卫生技术人员数量的系统动力学预测

摘要

Objective:To construct a system dynamics model for health professional allocation in Pudong New Area,and to simulate and forecast the number of health professionals so as to provide evidence for decision making of health human resources allocation and development. Methods:The data from health statistics reports and previous survey of health human resources in Pudong New Area were collected,and expert consultation was used to estimate the status of some variables. Vensim DSS was used to construct the system dynamics model for health professional allocation in Pudong New Area to simulate and forecast. Results:Under the condition of the stable policy,the goal was set at the average level of Shanghai health professional allocation,the system dynamics model for health professional allocation in Pudong New Area was constructed,and the number of health professionals was forecasted to be 37 330(6.433 per thousand populations) in 2020. Conclusion:According to the goals,the health professionals in Pudong New Area would be deficient in 2020 and the success rate of recruitment needs adjustment. Also,it was expected that some breakthroughs in health policies and management system be made.%目的：基于系统动力学方法，构建浦东新区全区卫生技术人员配置的系统动力学模型，模拟和预测卫生技术人员的数量，为浦东新区卫生人力发展和配置提供决策信息。方法：收集卫生统计资料和以往浦东新区卫生人力资源的研究数据，通过专家咨询获得模型参数的估计值，并采用Vensim DSS软件构建浦东新区卫生技术人员配置的系统动力学模型，进行仿真模拟和预测。结果：在政策环境不变的条件下，设定上海市卫生技术人员配置的平均水平为目标，构建了浦东新区卫生技术人员预测模型，预测2020年浦东新区将配置卫生技术人员37330人，每千人口卫生技术人员数达6.433。结论：按所设定的目标，2020年浦东新区卫生技术人员仍将短缺，应当调整卫生人员的招聘成功率。同时，浦东新区应在卫生政策和管理制度上有所突破。