浦东新区区属公立医疗机构卫生技术人员数量的系统动力学预测

摘要

目的：基于系统动力学方法，构建浦东新区区属公立医疗机构卫生技术人员资源配置的系统动力学模型，模拟和预测卫生技术人员的数量，为浦东新区区属公立医疗机构的卫生人力发展和配置提供决策信息。方法：收集卫生统计资料和以往浦东新区有关人力资源的研究数据，通过专家咨询获得部分模型参数的估计值，并采用Vensim DSS软件构建浦东新区区属公立医疗机构卫生技术人员配置的系统动力学模型，进行模拟和预测。结果：在政策环境不变的情况下，设定满足区域内人群卫生服务需求为目标，构建了浦东新区区属公立医疗机构卫生技术人员需求预测模型，预测2020年浦东新区社区卫生服务中心和区属公立医院卫生技术人员的需求量将分别增长54.08%和34.36%。结论：2020年浦东新区社区卫生服务中心的卫生技术人员将明显短缺，应当通过政策鼓励等手段提高社区卫生技术人员的招聘成功率。%Objective:To construct a system dynamics model for health professional allocation in public medical institutions of Pudong New Area,and to simulate and forecast the number of health professionals so as to provide evidence for decision making of health human resources allocation and development. Methods:The data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong New Area were collected,and expert consultation was used to estimate the status of some variables. Vensim DSS was used to construct the system dynamics model for health professional allocation in public medical institutions of Pudong New Area to simulate and forecast. Results:Setting the goal to meet the healthcare demands under the condition of the stable policy,the system dynamics model for health professionals in public medical institutions of Pudong New Area was constructed. It was predicted that the demands for health professionals in community health service centers and public hospitals would increase by 54.08%and 34.36%,respectively in 2020. Conclusion:Health professionals in community health service centers of Pudong New Area would be significantly deficient in 2020 and it was suggested that some encouraging policies be carried out to increase the success rate of recruitment.