中国制造业出口竞争力迅速提升的同时污染排放也不断增加,要素禀赋和污染转移对中国制造业实现清洁增长的影响效果如何,深入研究该问题对于中国制造业的可持续发展具有重要参考价值.通过建立出口商品碳排放含量指标,对全球163个国家1995-2007年的出口商品碳排放含量进行了测算,并以中国制造业为例,具体检验了要素禀赋假说和污染天堂假说在全球和中国是否成立.实证研究结果表明:①污染天堂假说在全球样本下并不成立,发展中国家主要出口碳排放含量低的劳动密集型商品.②中国制造业中相对清洁的劳动密集型行业长期具有出口竞争优势,理论上这种贸易分工不应增加污染排放,然而伴随FDI大量流入中国制造业,其通过产业关联间接引起制造业污染排放增加,污染天堂假说在中国是成立的.因此,中国制造业要实现高增长和低排放,关键需从产业关联的角度控制FDI流入对中国制造业的间接污染排放,并鼓励外资企业转移先进的减排技术降低污染密集型行业的排污量.%With the rapidly increasing export competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry, pollution emissions are also increasing. How the fact endowment and the pollution transfer affect the clean development of China's manufacturing industry? The deep research on this question is critical to the sustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry. By establishing the index of embodied carbon emission in export commodities and taking China's manufacturing industry as an example, the paper calculates the embodied carbon emission in export commodities from 163 countries around the world during 1995 -2007, and tests whether pollution haven hypothesis or factor endowment hypothesis are validity for the global sample and China's manufacturing industry. According to the empirical study, it concludes the following results; First, pollution haven hypothesis is not confirmed for the global sample. The developing countries mainly export the labor intensive commodities with low embodied carbon emission. Second, the relative clean labor intensive sectors have sustained export competitive advantage. Theoretically, the trade division should not increase pollution emissions in China's manufacturing industry. However, with the FDI inflow into Chinese manufacturing industry, it will indirectly induce pollution emission increase by its industrial linkage effects. Pollution haven hypothesis is feasible in China. Therefore, for high growth and low pollution emissions in Chinese manufacturing industry, the indirect pollution emissions caused by FDI inflow must be controlled and foreign enterprises should be encouraged to transfer advanced emission reduction technology in the pollution intensive industries for pollution emissions decrease.
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