探讨了中国城市化、经济发展、技术进步等与城市道路交通碳排放之间的长期均衡关系与动态作用机制,并对中国城市道路交通碳排放进行了预测和情景分析.结果表明:①城市化率、交通能源强度、城市居民消费水平和人均GDP对城市道路交通碳排放的长期均衡弹性分别为0.93、0.73、0.68、0.44；②城市道路交通碳排放的最大贡献者在中短期内是交通能源强度,长期内是城市化率；③人均GDP增长率的提高,短期内会促使城市道路交通碳排放增长率提高,而长期又有助于使之降低；④中国城市道路交通碳排放持续增长的趋势在相当长时期内不可避免；⑤不同的发展理念和政策与技术的组合,可以使城市道路交通碳排放发生重大变化.基于研究,提出了中国城市道路交通碳减排的政策取向.%The long-term equilibrium relationship and dynamic mechanisms of interaction between urban road transport carbon emissions and urbanization, economic development and technological progress is studied, and forecasts for China's urban road transport carbon emissions and scenarios analysis are carried out. The results showed that: ( 1 ) The long-term equilibrium elasticity of the urbanization rate, transport energy intensity, urban household consumption level and per capita GDP on urban road transport carbon emission are 0.93,0.73,0.68 and 0.44 respectively. (2) The largest contributor to urban road transport carbon emissions is transport energy intensity in the medium and short term, and the urbanization rate in the long-term. ( 3 ) Increases of per capita GDP growth rate will lead to enhancing urban road transport carbon emissions in the short term, and will help decrease it in the long-run. (4) The growth trend of China's urban road transport carbon emissions is impossible to avoid. (5 ) Different development idea and policy combinations can make significant changes in urban road transport carbon emissions. Based on the research, China's urban road transport carbon emission reduction policy is put forward.
展开▼
