煤层底板突水风险智能灰靶模型的研究

摘要

分析煤层底板突水的灾变过程，以含水层富水程度、含水层平均水压、隐断层水文性质、隐断层发育系数、隔水层平均厚度和动底板岩层组合作为底板突水的风险辨识指标，通过效益型隶属梯度去除量纲干扰。应用灰色关联得到含水层因子、隐断层因子和隔水层因子，作为煤层底板突水风险的原始成分、必然成分和控制成分。提出煤层底板突水风险的智能灰靶模型，以效果测度向量区分安全、隐患和事故状态，实现了定性结果和定量赋值的有机融合。将模型应用到实践中，结果基本吻合实际，为研判复杂煤层底板突水风险提供一种新思路。%To analyse the catastrophe process of groundwater inrush from coal seam floor ,the identifying index are composed of aquifer watery degree ,aquifer average pressure ,hidden fault hydrological properties ,hidden fault development coefficient ,water‐resisting layer average thickness and mining floor strata combination ,the dimensional disturbance are deleted by benefit membership gradient .By grey correlation ,aquifer factor ,hidden fault factor and water‐resisting layer factor are composition of the ancient , the necessary and the control to groundwater inrush from coal seam mining floor .The intelligent grey target model of groundwater inrush risk from coal seam floor is taken out .The effect measure vector is to distinguish three different circumstances of the safe ,the hidden and the accident ,which is organic integration of qualitative result and quantitative valuation .Some cases were forecasted by the model and the results were basically excellent ,so the model can precisely evaluate the complex groundwater inrush risk .