Risk Analysis Model of Water Inrush Through the Seam Floor Based on Set Pair Analysis

摘要

The complex hydrogeological conditions of China’s coal fields and the frequent water inrush accidents there seriously threaten the safe mining of coal. A new risk evaluation model for water inrushes from seam floors was constructed by combining the established evaluation index system with set pair analysis (SPA), thereby integrating quantitative and qualitative indexes. The resultant model reflects both the factors affecting water inrush from the seam floor and the uncertainty in the parameter values for those factors. To demonstrate the value of this model, the risk of water inrush from the seam floor was assessed for the working face of a mine in Tongzi county, Guizhou province, China. The prediction obtained from the model conformed to the actual conditions. Moreover, the methodology provides a basis for water inrush risk assessment from seam floors.