重大事件对城市住宅价格的影响——来自杭州市的证据

摘要

研究目的：研究金融危机、宏观调控政策等重大事件对城市住宅价格的影响,为政策制定提供依据。研究方法：BP多断点检测和集成经验模态分解。研究结果：（1）重大事件导致房价序列产生结构性断点;（2）2008年金融危机使得杭州市商品住宅均价下跌4912.5元/m2,一年后反弹3759.0元/m2;（3）2007年货币调控政策刚开始的市场反应与预期相符,13周后相反,最终使得均价上升2072.3元/m2;（4）2010年＂国11条＂和＂新国10条＂两大调控政策对房价的综合影响程度为-2998.6元/m2,选择了恰当的实施时机。研究结论：重大事件对房价波动的影响模式是＂台阶式＂的;建议在市场对宏观调控做出充分反应后再制定下一次调控政策。%The purpose of this paper is to study the impacts of social events on urban housing prices,aiming to provide reference for policy makers.Research methods include BP multi-structure change tests and ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD).The results indicate that structural changes in housing prices series were caused by social events.The 2008 financial crisis sent down housing prices in Hangzhou 4912.5 yuan/m2 averagely,and then it rebound upward 3759.0 yuan/m2 later.Control policies dominated by monetary finance in 2007 did not curb the rising momentum,but raised the prices of 5512 contrarily."The 11 regulations" and "new 10 rules" in 2010 brought a decrease of 2998.6 yuan/m2 on the housing prices comprehensively,and the appropriate time points were chosen to implement.It is concluded that housing prices response mode of social events can be described as"setback type".Suggestions,such as market reactions to the last adjustment should be taken into account timely before making policies,were offered in the conclusion part.