建筑工程项目工期的影响因素与预测模型

摘要

工期目标直接影响工程项目实施效果,但是影响工程项目工期的因素众多,很难准确预测一个合理的工期.本文基于上海市2008～2015年212个建筑工程项目的实践数据,首先识别出影响项目工期的主要因素,包括总造价、总建筑面积、总层数、檐高、基础开挖深度、建筑用途、结构类型等,以及派生因素如标准层面积、单位面积造价等,然后使用多元线性回归方法得到满足假设检验条件的初步模型.经过全面对比分析,发现以对数建设速度作为工期模型的因变量更加精确.通过调整不同影响因素,得到不同预测模型.然后通过评价不同假设检验,选择最佳工期预测模型.最后验证该预测模型在不同条件变化下的稳定性和有效性,通过广泛讨论不同影响因素,提出优化后的工期预测模型和应用建议.%The target of construction duration definitely plays an important role in the implementation performance of construction project,but numerous impact factors may affect construction duration,so that determining a reasonable construction duration accurately may be difficult.Based on the investigation of 212 building construction projects implemented in 2008-2015 in Shanghai,some critical impact factors of construction duration,including total cost,total floor area,total number of floors,height of eaves gutter,excavation depth,usage type and structure type,axe identified.Several derivative factors,such as area of standard floor and cost per unit floor area,are also identified.Furthermore,the preliminary models,which meet the hypothesis tests,are obtained by applying the multiple linear regression analysis.A comprehensive comparison of those models reveals that the model with the logarithm of construction speed as a dependent variable is more accurate than any other models.By adjusting the impact factors,some prediction models can be attained.Based on the evaluation of different hypothesis tests,the best model of predicting the construction duration is recommended.Eventually,the stability and effectiveness of the proposed best model under different conditions is validated,and the optimized model of predicting construction duration and the application advices is presented based on a widespread discussion of different impact factors.