GCr15轴承钢可靠性模型的探讨

摘要

The log -normal distribution and Weibull distribution are taken as reliability model for bearing steel GCr15. The maximum likelihood method is adopted to estimate the parameters for two kinds of distribution functions,and the reliability analysis is realized.The standard deviation between two kinds of distribution and experience function is ob-tained through case analysis,and the relative error of two distribution life is calculated based on small standard devia-tion distribution.The results show that the relative error of two distribution life is large,the analysis for different bat-ches of bearing steel GCr15 is carried out by using two distributions,and the small standard deviation distribution is chosen as reliability model.%以对数正态分布和 Weibull 分布作为 GCr15轴承钢的可靠性模型，使用极大似然法对2种分布函数进行参数估计，实现可靠性分析；通过案例分析得出2种分布与经验函数的标准差，并以标准差小的分布为基准，计算2种分布寿命的相对误差，结果证明：2种分布寿命的相对误差较大，不同批次的 GCr15轴承钢应分别运用2种分布进行分析，选择标准差小的作为可靠性模型。