甘肃敦煌旅游业与城市发展协调性及趋势分析

摘要

利用甘肃省敦煌市1987—2012年的社会经济统计数据，将信息熵赋权法和TOPSIS评价法相结合，对敦煌旅游业与城市发展协调性进行测算，并借助ARIMA模型预测短期内协调性发展状态和趋势。1987—2012年敦煌旅游业与城市发展协调性呈持续递增的态势，协调系数由1987年的0．134增长到2012年的0．933，增幅较大，说明二者发展保持着良性互动、协调发展的状态。 ARIMA模型的预测结果显示，2013—2017年协调性将继续优化，保持和谐互动的发展势头。敦煌旅游业与城市发展协调性的不断优化，与其所处的发展环境、政策机遇密切相关。西部大开发战略、敦煌水资源合理利用和生态保护综合规划、华夏文明传承保护创新实验区规划的实施以及丝绸之路经济带的建设成为敦煌旅游业与城市发展的动力和机遇。%With the help of the social and economic statistical data from 1987 to 2012 of Dunhuang City, the paper has measured the coordination between tourism and urban development in Dunhuang City combined the em-powerment of information entropy and TOPSIS evaluation method, and with the aid of ARIMA model to predict the status and trends of coordination development in the short term.Results show that the tourism and urban develop-ment coordination is continuously increasing from 1987 to 2012 in Dunhuang City, and the coordination coefficient is bigger from 0.134 in 1987 to 0.933 in 2012, illustrate the development maintain a state of positive interaction and coordinated development.ARIMA model predicted results show that the coordination will continue to optimize from 2013 to 2017, and maintain the momentum of the development of harmonious interaction.Dunhuang tourism and urban development coordination optimization is closely related to the development environmental and policy op-portunities.The implement of the western development strategy, the Dunhuang water resources rational utilization and ecological protection planning,Huaxia civilization heritage protection innovation experimental area planning and construction of the silk road economic belt became the motivation and opportunities of the tourism and urban devel-opment in Dunhuang City.