城镇化与房价变动的空间计量——基于省级面板数据分析

摘要

Based on the spatial panel data of 31 provinces (excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan) in China from 2001 to 2015,by using the spatial panel model,this paper analyzes the influence of urbanization on the changes of housing price.The study found that:in the research period,the variation of the urbanization rate of population,industrial urbanization rate,and housing construction area have a significant positive impact on housing price,the variation of urbanization investment have a significant negative impact on housing price;the spatial lags of the urbanization rate of population,industrial urbanization rate,industrial investment,per capita GDP,green ar ea,housing construction area all have a significant positive effect on housing price.Therefore,it is important to optimize the investment structure of urbanization,improve the quality of population urbanization,strengthen the integration of production and urbanization,and promote housing price reasonable and stable operation.%基于2001-2015年中国31个省份(不合港澳台地区)的面板数据,运用空间面板模型,分析了城镇化对房地产价格水平的影响.研究发现:在考察期内,人口城镇化率、产业城镇化率、房屋施工面积对房地产价格水平产生显著的正向影响,城镇化投资额对房地产价格水平产生显著的负向影响;人口城镇化率、产业城镇化率、城镇化投资额、人均GDP、绿化面积、房屋施工面积的空间滞后项对房地产价格水平产生显著的正向影响,空间溢出效应显著.为此,需要优化城镇化投资结构,提高人口城镇化质量,强化产城融合,促进房地产价格合理稳定运行.