利用天水市1968-2009年间的气温变化资料,分析近几十年来天水市气温的变化趋势及特点;结合天水市农业科学研究所1980-2010年的油菜生育期资料,通过分析油菜生育期与温度的关系及变化趋势,建立回归模拟方程,揭示油菜对气候变暖的响应,为种植业结构调整和粮食安全提供理论依据.结果表明,天水市冬油菜播种期、出苗期有推迟趋势,现蕾期、抽薹期、初花期、盛花期及成熟期随时间的推移均呈现提前的交化趋势.冬油菜生育期间隔天数均表现为缩短趋势,成熟期提前10.1 d/10a.在油菜生育期各阶段中,播种～出苗期、抽薹～初花期、初花～盛花期间隔天数有延长的趋势,而出苗～现蕾期、现蕾～抽薹期、盛花～成熟期间隔天数均呈缩短趋势.油菜1980-2010年间千粒重总体呈现增加趋势,拟合方程为:y=0.0135x+ 2.5825,R2=0.0941.油菜全生育期与5、10、15、20 cm平均地温均呈极显著负相关.%Using the temperature change data of Tianshui in 1968—2009 years the temperature variation trend and characteristics of Tianshui in recent years were analyzed. Combined with the growth period data grom the Institute of A-gricultural Sciences of Tianshui in 1980—2010 years, the relation of rapeseed growth period and temperature and its variation trend were analyzed. And then the regression model was set up to reveal rape response to climate warming and to provide a theoretical basis for planting structure adjustment and food security. The results showed that the winter rape rowing and seeding trended to postponed, whereas the emergence of bud, producing shoots, first stage of flowering, middle stage of flowering and maturity trended in advance with the passage of time. Number of days between various growth periods of winter rape trended to shorten and the mature time got earlier by 10.1 d/10a. The growth period of sowing -seeding, producing shoots - first stage of flowering, first stage of flowering - middle stage of flowering trended to prolong, and the growth period of seeding - emergence of bud, emergence of bud - producing shoots and middle stage of flowering - maturity all trended to shorten. 1000-grain weight of rape in 1980—2010 years trended to increase with the equation y = 0.0135χ + 2.5825, R2 = 0.0941. The whole growth period of rape was significantly negatively correlated with the 5, 10, 15 cm and 20 cm average ground temperature.
展开▼
