川中丘陵区气候变化及其对春玉米生产潜力的影响--以遂宁为例

摘要

Based on the daily meteorological data of 6 sites from 1971—2013,have analyzed the climate variation in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan,and researched the effects of climate change on potential productivity of spring maize by a case study in Suining Region.The results indicated that:(1)The variation coefficients of yearly sunshine hours and precipitation was 14.79% and 18.71% respectively,and the annual difference was obvious.Also the sunshine hours have been assumed a decreasing trend year by year,the climate tendency rate of sunshine hours was -72.69 h·10a -1, while there was no big annual difference for the yearly mean temperature and relative humidity.(2)The variation of sun-shine hours,precipitation,mean temperature and relative humidity in growing period of spring maize were matched with the yearly climate change,the annual variation of sunshine hours and precipitation in growing period of spring maize was more obvious.(3)Both the photo-thermal potential productivity and climatic potential productivity of the spring maize in research area has assumed a decreasing trend.There was extremely significant correlation between photo -thermal poten-tial productivity and sunshine hours with the temperatures,while the climatic production potential had an extremely sig-nificant correlation with the sunshine hours and relative humidity,and a significant correlation with precipitation.So the sunshine hours was the primary limiting factor for the photo-thermal potential productivity and climatic potential produc-tivity in this area,also the precipitation and relative humidity were the key factors for restricting climate potential produc-tivity of spring maize.%根据川中丘陵区6个站点1971—2013年逐日气象数据资料，分析川中丘陵区气象因子变化，并以遂宁地区为例研究了气候变化对春玉米生产潜力的影响。结果表明：（1）研究区年日照时数、降水量变异系数分别为14．79％和18．71％，年际间差异明显，且日照时数呈逐年降低趋势，日照时数气候倾向率为－72．69 h·10a －1，而年平均温度和相对湿度年际间差异不大。（2）玉米生育期日照时数、降水量、平均温度和相对湿度的变化与年气候变化一致，玉米生育期日照时数和降水量的年际间差异更明显。（3）研究区春玉米光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力均呈逐年波动下降的趋势，光温生产潜力与玉米生育期日照时数和温度极显著相关，而气候生产潜力与玉米生育期日照时数和相对湿度极显著相关，与降雨量呈显著相关关系。可见，日照时数是该区春玉米光温和气候生产潜力发挥的首要限制因子，而降雨量和相对湿度则是制约春玉米气候生产潜力的关键因子。