航空发动机转速信号的ARMA模型预测方法研究

摘要

This paper presents a method to analyze and forecast the rotate speed signal of one type of aero -engine that is based on time series theory by modeling ARMA model, and establishes ARMA(3,1 ) model to predict the value and transfformation trend of rotate speed signal. The application results show that the erected ARMA(3,1) model can simulate rotate speed signal series quite well with good prediction accuracy,so it suggests that the method which is based on time series and ARMA model can be affectively and applirably used in aero-engine condition monitoring and fault diagnosis.%提出了一种基于时间序列理论的分析和预测某型航空发动机转速信号的方法,建立了描述发动机额定转速变化规律的ARMA(3,1)模型,并对发动机转速进行预测.结果表明,所建模型能够以较高精度预测未来一段周期内发动机转速信号的发展趋势和数值大小,说明采用时序分析方法进行航空发动机转速信号预测有效可行.