北京气候中心气候系统模式对中国四季日平均气温的模拟性能评估∗

摘要

In the present paper, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method is first used to analyze the daily average temperature records in four seasons in China, and the results show that the seasonal temperature records exhibit long-range correlation in China, especially in Xinjiang and Xizang in western China. Based on the long-range correlation in observational temperature records, we use DFA to evaluate the performances of the simulated daily average temperature series in four seasons in China by Beijing Climate Center climate system model (BCC_CSM) (1.1 m), and find that the BCC_CSM (1.1 m) can reflect the long-range correlations in different seasons. In general, the simulated results are best in spring except for the bad performance in Jiangnan. In summer, the simulation performance is poor in middle-east China and most areas in Tibet, especially in the southern North China, western Huanghai, Jiangnan and South China. The long-rang correlation of the simulated data for autumn is stronger in Northeast China, southeast North China, while weaker in the most of Northwest China. In winter, except for the eastern seaboard, the simulated long-range correlations of daily temperature are weaker than that of observational records in most China. And the simulated performance is poor in Northwest China, Southwest China, northern South China, southern Jiangnan and northern Northeast China, especially in the western Tibet.%利用去趋势波动分析方法对中国四季日平均气温观测资料进行了研究，发现四季日平均气温均具有很好的长程相关性特征，中国西部地区尤其是新疆和西藏的长程相关性较强。基于观测资料中的这种长程相关性特征，评估了北京气候中心气候系统模式对中国四季日平均气温的模拟性能，发现该模式能够较好地反映中国四季日平均气温的长程相关性特征。总体而言，模式对春季的日平均气温的长程相关性模拟效果最好，仅对江南地区的长程相关性的模拟较差；夏季，模式模拟误差较大的地区包括中国中东部地区及西藏大部，其中华北南部、黄淮西部、江南大部、华南等地模拟效果最差；秋季，模式对东部沿海及东北大部、华北西南部等地模拟的长程相关性偏强，而在西北大部模拟的长程相关性明显偏弱；冬季，除东部沿海地区模拟的长程相关性偏强外，全国其余大部分地区接近观测或偏弱，其中西北、西南、华南北部、江南南部、东北北部偏弱明显，青藏高原西部偏弱最为显著。