印度未来能源需求对中国获取境外能源的影响初探

摘要

印度拥有全球18％的人口,消费全球约5％的一次能源,创造了全球8％左右GDP,是全球发展最快的国家之一,探讨印度未来能源需求对中国获取境外能源的影响具有重要的战略意义.本文在分析印度社会经济发展和能源消费的基础上,利用人均能源消费“S”形模型对2030年印度一次能源需求进行了预测并探讨了其对中国获取境外能源的影响.研究认为2030年以前,印度未来能源需求不会对中国境外获取天然气和铀矿资源产生较大影响.而由于中印两国石油进口量较大且与所有的增长都存在叠加,将影响全球石油的供需格局.同时鉴于两国石油进口来源地具有高度重叠性,印度未来能源需求的增加,将对中国境外获取石油资源产生重要的影响.%India possesses 18％ population of the world.Its primary energy consumption is about 5％ of the world's consumption and it creates about 8％ global GDP.Therefore India is one of the fastest growing countries in the world.The discussion on India's future primary energy demand and its influence on China's obtaining of overseas resources has strategic significance.Based on the analysis of social and economic development and the primary energy consumption status of India,the authors used the rule of per capita energy consumption "S" shape to forecast India's primary energy consumption in 2030,and discussed the influence of such a situation on China's obtaining of overseas resources.The results show that India's future energy demand will not have a great influence on China's obtaining of overseas natural gas and uranium resources until 2030.The high oil imports of India and China will affect global oil supply and demand structure.At the same time,because the two countries' import of oil sources has overlapping characteristics,the increase of India's future energy demand will have an important impact on China's obtaining of overseas petroleum resources.